It is going to be near impossible to predict seat by seat switches at this rate. I will have a go on the weekend, but doubt my batting average will be very good. Last election was very easy to predict. I got 94% of seats right. This time I would be happy with 75%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011.04.27_Politics_CAN.pdf
Changing topics, I would be remiss if I did not say Canucks win!
Update
False Alarm. SFU election polls had the Liberals at 27% and NDP at 30. However, if you go to Angus Reid site you see that the reverse is true. My bad and their bad. http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls-regional.html#ON
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Nanos shows a 21 point lead in Ontario for the Cons. over the Libs (still in second).
That is 47% to 26%.In Ontario!
This is the same Ontario that the Libs took 100 seats out of 101 (estimate) that they needed to win majorities.
With an obvious disconnect in both the West(over a generation) and Francophone Quebec (almost a generation) the narrative now becomes why bother?
How long will the Libs keep up the narrative that only they can govern? Do you still really believe that the other options are scary? Honestly?
I don't need to remind you that this election was forced by the Lib party. The Libs do not understand this country. They are clueless.
The only thing left is May 2. Will the vote splitting put the numbers for Libs to a rump or will they manage to hold on to official opposition?
Libs are in it to win. That is why people run for that party. Either way the knives will be out and it won't be pretty. We have already seen commentary about merges from party officials while Ignatieff tries to demonize the NDP.
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