Friday, October 31, 2008
Fortunately for the country, but unfortunately for the Liberals, social conservative fruit cake Alice Wong did not make the grade. For those that do not know, she is right up there with Rob Anders and Cheryl Gallant. The same can be said of that intellectual giant Donna Cadman.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Moreover, everything the Dion said and did fit perfectly with the Conservative caricature of him. They played him like a fiddle. The Conservatives painted Dion as an indecisive wimp. The worst thing Dion could do once the Conservatives started making everything into a confidence motion was to talk tough and then abstain. That is what a wimp would do. The worst thing Dion and Liberals could have done when the Conservatives started playing bully boy was to get high and mighty and self righteous, but that is exactly what the Liberals did every single time. (I am starting to think that the popping puffin was no gaffe but was rather part of deliberate attempt to emasculate Dion by having the media play it ad nauseum and having Dion and the Liberals get all huffy about it.) The way to handle Conservative bullying is to roll your eyes and mock them. Think of the fun Trudeau would have had with an – intellectual-- lightweight like Peter Van Loan. Tell John Baird that he looks like he is going to stroke and that putting Harper in sweater is about as strange a sight as Paris Hilton carrying around a dressed up pit bull instead of one of those puntable breeds. Do not demand an apology. An apology is what a wimp would ask for.
Then there is election itself. Dion said he was going to take the highroad and like any wimp he did. He wanted to show that if he could not beat Harper in the trenches at least he would show that he held the moral high ground. So instead of doing the smart thing and rolling out one hard hitting negative ad after another, Dion gave us the odd negative ad and a lot of sunshine, butterflies, flags and happy people. In other words, the Liberals rolled out just the kind of useless ads wimps would roll out.
What happened in the English debate was even worse. Dion needed to have some zingers reader. He needed to be brief and not verbose. He needed to hit Harper hard, the way big sister Elizabeth May did. Instead, Dion was hopelessly cheerful when not filled with righteous indignation. His accent was strong throughout, revealing why a bully might have taken notice of him in the first place. I thought I was watching a Conservative ad every time he spoke and “Do you think it is easy to make priorities?” stuck in my head the rest of the night.
So it is only fitting that Dion signs off by talking about the successful smear campaign against him and promising that he will do everything in his power to make to sure this does not happen to next Liberal leader. That is exactly what a wimp would do. But, fear not Stephane. The next leader won’t be a wimp.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The sooner Dion goes, the better.
Friday, October 17, 2008
As for Canadians outside of major centers, if you want to make headway with that group you promise to improve their economic lot. The Torries have done this. They promise them tax cuts every election and have more or less cornered the market in that regard. The Liberals need to promise to reduce expenses in a way the population can get their head around and that is by again embracing universality. People do not understand or care about means tested policies and this is all the Liberals have offered up for decades now. You can not strengthen your brand by proposing a means tested policy. Furthermore, the population knows that a means tested policy is politically vulnerable and is likely to be chopped in hard times or in Tory times. However if you think raising taxes is a hard see just try cutting a universal social program. A popular universal social programs quickly become part of what it means to be Canadian and real boon to the party that introduced it.
The Liberal vote was down by 849,425.
The Liberal share of the popular vote was the worst in party history
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 8.3% in BC
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 3.94% in Alberta and at 11.36 this was the party’s worst ever showing in Alberta
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 7.55 % in Saskatchewan and at 14.85 this was the party’s worst ever showing in the province.
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 6.87% in Manitoba and at 19.13 this was the party’s worst ever showing in Manitoba
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 6.11% in Ontario
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 7.33% in Nova Scotia and this was the party’s second worst showing there.
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 4.33% in PEI.
The Liberal share of the popular vote was down 6.81% in New Brunswick.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
This is this is the second worst election performance for the Liberals in modern era.
The Liberal share of the popular vote has never been lower. The Liberals where down everywhere, and I do mean everywhere, accept Montreal. They bled votes to the Greens, to NDP, and above all to the Conservatives. Thousands upn thousands of Liberal voters also just stayed home.
The next Liberal leader must be able to speak both French and English flawlessly. Dion Kool aid drinkers can claim that Dion's English was not a big deal, but they are deluding themselves. It was a huge deal.
The next Liberal leader must be willing to play smash mouth politics. Dion’s high road approach left the Liberals high and dry.
The next Liberal leader must renew the Liberal brand that is all but dead. That means he or she must embrace universality and full blooded social liberalism.
Monday, October 13, 2008
The Conservatives will make gains in Winnipeg, the Lowermainland, and the 905.
Liberal looses in Northern Ontario are the NDP’s gain.
The Conservatives will loose their stranglehold on Quebec City to the Bloc
With the electorate unhappy and uninterested, the number of Canadians voting will reach historic lows
Conservatives 34.5 (-1.5)
Liberals 27 (-3)
NDP 19 (+1.5)
Greens 7.5 (+3)
Conservatives 138 (+14)
Liberals 75 (-28)
Bloc 53 (+2)
NDP 40 (+11)
Independents 2 (+1)
Conservatives 23 (+6)
NDP 9 (-1)
Liberals 4 (-5)
Liberals 1 (-1)
NDP 1 (+1)
Conservatives 10 (+2)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberals 37 (-17)
Conservatives 50 (+10)
NDP 19 (+7)
Bloc 53 (+2)
Conservatives 6 (-4)
Liberals 14 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)
Liberals 4 (-2)
Conservatives 5 (+2)
Liberals 5 (-1)
Independents 1 (+1)
Liberals 5 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)
Conservatives 1 (-2)
Conservatives: seat pick ups
1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
4) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
5) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
6) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals
7) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals
8) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals
9) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals
10) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals
11) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals
12) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals
13) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals
14) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals
15) Conservatives pick up Halton from Liberals
16) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
17) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals
1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens
1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
2) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP
Liberals: seat pick ups
1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives
1) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP
1) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc
2) Liberals pick up Ahuntsic form the Bloc
NDP: seat pick ups
1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals
5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals
6) NDP pick up Welland from Liberals
7) NDP pick up Kenora from Liberals
1) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives(Liberal win 2006)
2) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson)
3) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives
4) NDP pick up Oshawa from the Conservatives
5) NDP pick up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar from Conservatives
6) NDP pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's from Conservatives
Bloc: seat pick ups
1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives
2) Bloc pick up Louis Hebert from Conservatives
3) Bloc pick up Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles from Conservatives
4) Bloc pick up Beauport-Limoilou from Conservatives
5) Bloc pick up Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean from Conservatives
Sunday, October 05, 2008
2) When attacking the Conservatives in English, have Ignatieff or Rae do it.
3) Go after the female vote. God knows they have lost men. Stress that the Conservative Daycare plan has not produced a single daycare spot.
4) Bring up social issues. As I said thousand times before, this is the Conservatives Achilles Heel.
5) Layton has described Dion as "A man of principle and conviction”, and May has also said similar things about Dion: That being the case, why the hell are the Liberals not using these quotes?
Friday, October 03, 2008
However, given the number of shots he took on the economy, Harper came out relatively well on that account and his get dumb when it comes to crime plan was more or less given a free pass. Harper kept on saying that crime is up in “some” places and amazingly no one had the foresight to say “yes it is, but it is down in the vast majority of places.” Furthermore, May was the only one to point out how odd it is that Harper would consider sending somone, who is not considered mature enough to vote or drive, to jail for life. It was too bad May did not take it further. Not only are 14 years not allowed to vote, or drive, but they are also not allowed to decide whether to quite school, decide to marry, drink alcohol or consent to sex with adult. It takes a great deal of chutzpah on Harper’s part to on the one hand raise the age of consent to 16, or as the Conservatives like to say “age of protection”, and on the other hand claim that 14 years should be held to the same standards as adults when it comes to criminal matters. It also says a lot about the Conservative world view.
Of course the main reason that the major opposition parties were not able to mount an attack on Harper’s get dumb when it comes to crime platform was that they refuse to address the root cause surrounding the only kind of crime, viz., drug related crime that is going up and will continue to go up. I do not mean poverty; that was mentioned. No serious discussion of drug and gang related crime can take place without first acknowledging that what fuels drug related crime is the amount of money involved in the drug trade and the lure of money is the main reason why poor young men and teenagers come to be the foot soldiers in the drug trade. Not to put too fine a point on it but gang bangers to do commit drive bys for shits and giggles. They are on the job when they commit these acts. Pace the politicians, these are not meaningless random acts.
I surmise that part of the reason that May remained silent on the subject of legalizing marijuana, for example, was the political fallout of NDP’s version of Cheech and Chong.