Monday, September 29, 2008
My prediction as of right now.
Conservatives 151 (+27)
Liberals 75 (-28)
Bloc 45 (-6)
NDP 35 (+6)
Independents 2 (+1)
Conservatives 26 (+9)
NDP 7 (-3)
Liberals 3 (-6)
Conservatives 13 (+1) Liberals 1 (-1)
Conservatives 10 (+2)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberals 39 (-15)
Conservatives 50 (+10)
NDP 17 (+5)
Bloc 45 (-6)
Conservatives 14 (+4)
NDP 2 (+2)
Liberals 4 (-2)
Conservatives 5 (+2)
Liberals 5 (-1)
Independents 1 (+1)
Liberals 5 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)
Conservatives 1 (-2)
Conservatives (+1) (Liberals -1)
Conservatives: seat pick ups
1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
4) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
5) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
6) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
7) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals
8) Conservatives pick up North Vancouver from the Liberals
9) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals
10) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals
11) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals
12) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals
13) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals
14) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals
15) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals
16) Conservatives pick up Kenora from Liberals
17) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals
18) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals
19) Conservatives pick up Brampton West form Liberals
20) Conservatives pick up Oak Ridge Markham from Liberals
1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens
1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
2) Conservatives pick up British Columbia Southern Interior from NDP
3) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP
4) Conservatives pick up New Westminster-Coquitlam from NDP
1) Conservatives pick up Brome-Missisquoi from Bloc
2) Conservatives pick up Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine from Bloc
3) Conservatives pick up Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia from Bloc
4) Conservatives pick up Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord from Bloc
Liberals: seat pick ups
1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives
1) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP
1) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc
NDP: seat pick ups
1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals
5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals
1) NDP pick up Oshawa from Conservatives
2) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives
(Liberal win 2006)
3) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives
(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson)
4) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives
1) NDP pick up Gatineau from the Bloc
Bloc: seat pick ups
1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives
Friday, September 26, 2008
1) The green shift a disaster.
2) Dion is a disaster.
3) The Liberal platform is mix of boring platitudes and policies that have been announced before and have not captured the imagination of the Canadian people.
4) If the Liberals stay the course, they will be wiped off the map. There is likely nothing that could stay off a Conservative majority now, but that is what makes a late hail marry worth it.
5) The Liberal ads suck. The negative ads are not specific enough and the positive ads are a complete waste of money. Go negative and do not let up.
6) If the Liberals hold the Conservatives to minority, they could dump Dion and elect Rae or Ignatieff leader and the party will survive. If the Conservatives take a majority and Rae and Ignatieff pack in, the very future of the Liberal party could be in jeopardy.
Another problem is that just because one side is able to appeal to legitimate authorities does not mean that the media should seek out some huckster on the other side, in the name of “balance”, and pass him off as being equal in statue and yet this happens all the time. This has allowed the right to assert that there is serious debate when a learned consensus exists. There is no debate about the merits of Darwinian theories of evolution as compared to Intelligent Design. There is no debate about whether climate change is occurring. Learned opinion about Insite is not spilt and learned opinion is not spilt about Harper’s criminal justice plans either.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Nicholas Bala, a specialist in youth crime at Queen's University in Kingston, "significantly bad social policy."
Neil Boyd, a criminologist at Simon Fraser University "It's really very much a commitment to the American model. In America they have crime rate that's three-and-a-half times higher than ours and they put five times as many people in jail. That doesn't seem to me to be a very workable equation”
Ross Hastings, University of Ottawa criminologist, and co-founder of the Institute for the Prevention of Crime: "This is more of a politics of crime rather than it is a reasoned, evidence-based response to the problem of crime.”
Angela Campbell, who specializes in children and the law at McGill University's law faculty. "hard-line, law-and-order approach that is very simplistic and doesn't look at the social nuances that lead young people to criminal behaviour."
With their get dumb when it comes to crime plan panned by experts, the Conservatives argued that what really counts is what the uninformed where saying.
Jim Bob: The victims of crime should determine the punishment: they are the most objective
Jane Doe Tory: I hope those little #%$$# rot in hell
Grumpy old Guy: When I was young, kids knew their place.
Old guy from the Simpsons: that’s a paddling.
Sarah Palin: 14 year olds are not only enough to consent to sex, get married, drink alcohol, drive, join the army and vote, but if they commit a crime they need to be held to the same standard we would hold a adult to.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Stop wasting money on useless leadership ads. Dion is unsalable. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. The Liberals must go negative. Under no circumstances can Dion be shown in an ad or his voice heard.
The Green shift is unmediated disaster. Stop talking about it.
Promise to ban hand guns. This will help them with urban women.
The election is lost. It is all about keeping Harper in minority territory. On the subject of minority, mention the prospect of a Harper majority at every chance.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Chuck Strahl “Canadians know that the surplus comes from over taxation.”
Jay Hill “For Conservatives, a surplus is an error known as over-taxation”
Conservative candidate Mike Wallace. “Paul Martin has no credibility in fiscal matters - by overtaxing Canadians he has run massive budget surpluses year after year”
Conservative candidate Jim Flaherty: “The total federal surplus (over-taxation) was 63 billion during the last eight years.”
Now where have heard this surplus = over-taxation talking point before? Think think think. Oh yes, it was part of Republican Party platform back in 2000. “Budget surpluses are the result of over-taxation of the American people.” Needless to say, having turned record surpluses into record deficits I think it is safe to say that the Republicans have, indeed, succeeded in slaying the surplus and now the Conservatives are poised to follow suit.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Friday, September 05, 2008
Go negative in a big way.
run ads painting Harper as a mean spirited bully and promote viral internet ads doing the same
Attack Harper’s economic record repeatedly
Promote something other than the Green Shift. There is no evidence whatsoever that the Liberals own the environment or that environment is the issue.
Goad social conservatives into a major fight by promising to introduce something that really pisses them off
Promise to ban hand guns again
Get Rae and Ignatieff out in front of the cameras. Dion’s English has improved, but not enough.
Sask. and Alberta are lost causes --- forget about them.